Journal Journal of Mechanical Engineering – Problemy Mashynobuduvannia
Publisher A. Podgorny Institute for Mechanical Engineering Problems
National Academy of Science of Ukraine
ISSN 0131-2928 (Print), 2411-0779 (Online)
Issue Vol. 20, no. 1, 2017 (March)
Pages 28-35
Cited by J. of Mech. Eng., 2017, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 28-35



E. A. Strelnikova, A. Podgorny Institute of Mechanical Engineering Problems of NASU (2/10, Pozharsky St., Kharkiv, 61046, Ukraine), ORCID: 0000-0003-0707-7214

I. G. Sirota, Public Joint-Stock Company Ukrhydroenergo (07300, Ukraine, Kyiv region, Vyshgorod city)

A. V. Linnik, Public Joint-Stock Company Turboatom (199, Moskovsky Ave., Kharkiv, 61037, Ukraine), e-mail:

L. A. Kalembet, Public Joint-Stock Company Turboatom (199, Moskovsky Ave., Kharkiv, 61037, Ukraine)

V. N. Zarkhina, Public Joint-Stock Company Turboatom (199, Moskovsky Ave., Kharkiv, 61037, Ukraine)

O. L. Zaidenvarg, National Aerospace University “KhAI” (17 Chkalov St.,  Kharkov, 61070, Ukraine)



This article proposes a method for determining the mathematical expectation of the number of years before the destruction of the shaft of a hydro turbine having a defective area. It is assumed that near the shaft surface, there can be micro-defects that propagate under the action of an applied load. The time (in years) required for microcracks to develop before entering the defective area is determined.


Keywords: durability, hydro-turbine shaft, crack, expected value, mathematical expectation



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Received 10 February 2017

Published 30 March 2017